The ‘Landslide’
With the call of ‘It is eight o’clock’, the Exit Estimates were released; the projection by Ipsos Sopra-Steria for France-24 showed the biggest political upset in generations. Macron slew the Socialists on April 24th and the Far-Right on May 8th. The expected Conservative Comeback didn’t happen. With support climbing for the youngest leader of France since Napoleon; Emmanuel Macron was on track to win the biggest landslide in France’s Legislative Elections since Pompidou’s Majority in 1968 (or perhaps greater still). The Socialists were routed; in fifth place, the party was behind Jean Luc-Melenchon’s upstart France Unbowed movement. Their entire alliance had less than half that of the beleaguered Republicains. The National Front; once projected to have as many as 80 or 100 seats, made little progress since the 2012 legislative race.
The projections seem to show a healthy lead for Macron’s Party. They put him on course to win between 400 and 470 seats; the nearest opposition would be lucky to win 90 seats, and major figures on both the right and the left are expected to be booted.
What makes this result remarkable is not that La Republique en Marche and their MoDem Allies swept the First Round; it reflects how the few voters who bothered to actually turn out, swept the mainstream off the political map. For the Parti Socialiste, its reduction to the point of becoming a fringe party could only be made worse by the news that its leader, Cambadelis, and the Presidential Candidate Benoît Hamon were both likely to lose their seats. As for Les Republicains; they were projected to win as many as 505 seats in polls conducted in 2014. They were punished for not ditching Fillon for a second time.
Even if En Marche won over 200 seats it would be a historic result; they would be a Party that, from no representation, could now form one of the largest parties. This result is all the more shocking. Yet even as the Centrists can celebrate victory; there is reason for concern and worry. As with all giant majorities; they can fall with slip-ups.
Look at Theresa May; her projected majority of as many as 200 seats ended up a hung Parliament because of the U-Turns and Dementia Tax controversy. Look at what happened in 1997 to Chirac; from commanding a coalition with control of 80% of Parliament, he had to form a cohabitation government with the Socialists. Indeed, the only time in any European country one can remember a leader with two successive landslides of epic proportions would be in the UK with Tony Blair; and that was before Iraq!
En Marche has to pull off a ministry as carefully as the old game of trying to pull the cloth from beneath the plates. Macron made it clear from the start that he wanted to charge at French Labour Laws; one of several economic plans that have him and the Republicans on common ground. However, seeing how it went with Hollande and Chirac when they tried to force the Labour Laws out; there is little assurance for Macron that he would be greeted with smiling faces by Unionists when he changes that punishment for France’s economy.
What makes the need for perfection all the more critical is that if the Yellow Wave were to fall upon the Parliament as is being projected, the idea of there being ‘obstructionism’ or a majority that would be far too small would be hypocritical. Instead of casting ballots; the French would partake in their national hobby since 1789; picking up the pikes and demanding change. Furthermore, as compelling as the landslide theory sounds, it doesn’t account for the fact that the turnout is extremely low. The argument that this is because of ‘election fatigue’ falls short; the turnout this year is far lower than it was in 2012, 2007 or 2002; all of which indicates that people maybe upset with their choice of representative. En Marche has to win their support or face angry crowds of the unimpressed.
Further, what puts Macron’s success into question is whether or not the French people have the appetite for much-needed change that he knows to be necessary. He wants to tackle the age-old unemployment question; that was the product of disastrous changes initiated by the Mitterrand government in 1981. Given that they have been around for 36 years; the idea that the people of France would somehow rejoice at the prospect of seeing so much of their employment protection being reversed is questionable. This would certainly be the case amongst the youth; employers are required to justify sacking young employees, which prevented those employed from losing their jobs quickly (as one might argue, they should have).
Straining the case for En Marche is the fact that it remains heavily reliant on dissidents from other parties. Macron’s Prime Minister-select, Edouard Philippe, is a dissident from Les Republicains. Several of his ministers left the wreckage of Les Republicains and the Parti Socialiste. The only truly Centrist wing of his Party that has the required experience consists of the 90 politicians from the MoDem Party (which was a Centrist movement that had briefly gained attraction in 2007 before losing ground in the years that followed). If Macron were to play too much with Labour Laws, or threaten the free market that Les Republicains would want; there is a risk of the Party being pulled apart.
In addition, it’s clear from the First Round of the French Presidential Race that voters aren’t happy with the Centre. Although Macron won a resounding 66.1% of voters in May 2017; add together the lower turnout and votes that went to fringe parties before drawing to conclusions. If you count for Le Pen, Nicolas du Pont Aignan, Jean Luc-Melenchon and Philippe Poutou; over 45% of the French electorate chose a radical candidate. That’s not considering the fact that Benoît Hamon’s programmes would still further take the Parti Socialiste to the Left. Many voters chose Macron out of compulsion; not out of choice.
As a whole, the concept of La Republique en Marche can be said to be focussed on ending the ceaseless infighting between the right and the left; the Centrists would, after all, compromise. However, with its reliance on moderates from either sides, an apathetic electorate, high expectations and problems perhaps too large for even a giant majority in the National Assembly to deal with; En Marche has a long way to go before establishing its full strength. If he fails, he risks a return to Conservatism and Les Republicains with their right-wing approach, or still worse; the rise of either Jean Luc-Melenchon and his France Unbowed, or Marine le Pen and her National Front. Macron may have beaten the Alligators, but they still aren’t dead. He is more of a tightrope walker than one might expect.